Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
A key swing state has flipped in favor of Donald Trump, according to a new Electoral College map projection.
RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker shows that, with no toss-up states, Michigan has flipped in favor of Trump, with the former president now half a point ahead of his opponent, Kamala Harris, in the state, on 48.5 percent to her 48 percent. It’s the first time that the tracker has shown Trump ahead in the state, which Joe Biden flipped to blue in 2020, since July 29.
Trump’s lead in Michigan means the pollster is now forecasting that the former president will win the election with 296 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 242. Michigan has 15 electoral votes. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Recent polls have put Trump ahead in the state, including a survey conducted by Quinnipiac University between October 3 and 7, which put him 4 points ahead in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead with third party candidates included. The poll surveyed 1,007 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Other recent polls, including one conducted by the Trafalgar Group and another conducted by AtlasIntel, have also put Trump ahead among likely voters in the state by up to 4 points.
However, other aggregators still put Harris in the lead in the state. For example, 538’s polling tracker puts the vice president 1 point ahead of Trump, while pollster Nate Silver’s tracker puts her 1.4 points ahead. Both trackers show Harris’ lead has decreased by between 0.2 and 0.7 point in the space of a month.
Meanwhile, some individual polls have also shown Harris with a lead, including a survey conducted by Research Co. between October 5 and 7 that put her 3 points ahead among 450 likely voters – a lead within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.
Another poll, conducted by Redfield and Wilton Strategies between September 27 and October 2, put Harris 2 points ahead among 839 likely voters – a lead also within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.1 points.
While Harris’ lead may be marginal in the state, 538’s forecast still shows she’s predicted to win in Michigan, where poll aggregators show she has been leading since the end of July.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump would require 51. If Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would reach the electoral threshold needed for a win.
Without Michigan, Harris wouldn’t have enough votes to secure victory, even if she won Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, which would gain her 37 electoral votes. 538’s forecast predicts that Harris will win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska’s 2nd District, which would take her over the line to victory, while Trump will win in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
RealClearPolitics’ forecast shows that, with no toss-up states, Harris will win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, while Trump will win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him an overall win.
The close margins in these key battleground states indicate the race remains highly competitive, making it anybody’s to win. 538 recently noted that these narrow leads could result in the closest presidential contest in nearly 150 years.